Prediction: Sanders and Warren Will Both Go To the Democratic Party Convention

Here is my prediction for the 2020 Democratic Primary as of October 2019; the race for the democratic party’s nomination for president will go all the way to the 2020 party convention and it will be a contest between Sanders and Warren much like how the 1932 convention was a contest between FDR and Al Smith.

I base this analysis on my lifetime of political activism and my experience as a professional political organizer. I should note here that I am an explicit Sanders supporter, but this is not about who I think should win. This is a prediction for how I think the winner will be decided.

Here is why I see this primary going all the way to the convention.

Biden will most likely drop out after the first few election results come in. It is possible he may stay in the race until the convention as well, but I doubt it. He most likely will stick it out for the first few primaries but I guarantee that the results will not be great for him and he will be forced to eat crow.

Biden has slipped since each debate and he will continue to slip until his name recognition has depleted all it’s usefulness. Remember, the only thing Biden has going for him is name recognition, his policies are still exponentially unpopular compared to Warren or Sanders.

Warren supporters are set on electing Warren. They cannot be budged. They are dedicated to Warren and will stay dedicated, I do not see Warren supporters coming into the Bernie camp anytime soon. In fact most Warren supporters rank Bernie not even as their second or third options.

The 20-22% that Warren currently has cannot be shaken from supporting her. Her washy answers about her past views on gay marriage and her speeches to conservative groups in the 90s have not turned anyone in her base against her. They will leap to her defense at any point. To them it is all just proof that “people can change.” Warren will always have at least 20-22% support of Democrats throughout this election and that number is likely to go up when Biden drops out.

Not all of Biden’s supporters will flock to Liz Warren though. I honestly think there will be a split of Biden’s current 22% between Sanders and Warren and it will be fairly even. While their platforms are vastly different, some in the Biden camp will be attracted to Bernie’s pro working class rhetoric, while others from Biden’s camp will follow Warren because of her association to the Obama administration, the only other thing Biden has going for him besides name recognition. The people in Biden’s base who support him because he was Obama’s VP will most likely find more comfort in Warren than Sanders.

The split of Biden’s base between Warren and Sanders will be factors that carry them both into the convention.

Warren and Sanders are polling closely in all of the early election states and as the primary draws closer with each day the differences between the two will become more prevalent but for many it still represents a difficult choice that Democrats seem fairly evenly split on.

One candidate preaches comprehensive systemic change, the other preaches increased regulation. This is one of the biggest divides amongst registered democrats, do we outright abolish or reform capitalism? The two candidates who best represent the two sides of that question are Sanders and Warren. Between their equal levels of popularity, both are representative of the state of the left’s electoral challenges.

The democrats are no longer just capitalist liberals, in fact the party is now made up more of progressives and socialists than ever before. This is what makes it hard for some people to choose between the two. Socialists have their heart on Sanders because we need to stick with our own. The progressives who identify as Warren supporters support her for a number of reasons, the biggest being the desire many have to see a female president. Yet despite being representative of an oppressed community, it does not change the fact Bernie Sanders still has a better track record with fighting for oppressed communities.

This is what will carry on into the convention, it is no longer an argument of going left as Democrats but the argument is how far left will we go. Warren is a baby step to the left and Sanders is a giant leap. We can have Warren’s progressivism or Sanders’ socialism and because the support between Sanders and Warren is so close the decision will most likely be left to democratic convention delegates.

Because the democratic party itself is in such disarray and split between the capitalist and socialist elements the odds that one candidate will be unanimously rallied behind before the time of the convention are unlikely. Both front runners (sans Biden) have a dedicated base that will stay with them until the primary reaches its bitter conclusion. Sanders and Warren supporters cannot be budged.

Warren’s poor performance in the 4th primary debate complicates the equation though. Most people in her base think she performed with grace and patience but those outside of her base feel like she took a bad beating and did not reply strongly enough to the attacks against her. The argument most people have seems to be, “If she can’t handle Klobuchar or Buttigeig, how the hell can she handle Trump?” However her base, as always, remains unshaken and loyal to their idea of her. The debate performance was definitely enough to slow down her momentum but it will not be enough to reduce the loyalty of her followers.

Biden supporters will eventually have no choice but to pick between Warren and Sanders and that will result in a pretty even split. Warren and Sanders will both do well in their home states and the states that tend to always vote blue will most likely go to Warren, but Bernie is likely to build the most momentum in rural states and states that Trump won. The south is more likely to carry for Bernie this time but those states will also most likely be split evenly between Sanders and Warren. California, Ohio, and New York are the golden tickets though, and those are anyones game.

The key to winning this primary is not just in mobilizing in your states primary, the key will be getting your delegates to the convention. Democrats who want to support their candidate would be smart to mobilize their convention delegates as well as their campaigns, asap.

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#Breaking: Hickenlooper Drops Out

John Hickenlooper, former CO governor, has dropped out of the 2020 Democratic party primary.

Hickenlooper is the 2nd candidate to drop out of the primary, the first was California congressional representative Eric Swalwell, who dropped out in early July.

Hickenlooper never polled higher than 2% and his only claim to fame was getting booed of the stage of the California Democratic Party Convention for saying, “Socialism is not the answer.”

Hickenlooper unable to continue his speech after crowd rejects his idea that “Socialism is not the answer.”

Now that the facts have been presented, since this is a socialist blog, allow me to editorialize:

🎵Na Na Na Na🎵

🎵Na Na Na Na!🎵

🎵Hey Hey Hey🎵

🎵Goodbye!🎵

🎵Na Na Na Na🎵

🎵Na Na Na Na!🎵

🎵Hey Hey Hey🎵

🎵You Suck!🎵

The Dumbest Anti Bernie Take Ever

Andrew Ferguson wrote a piece for the Atlantic titled, “Tyranny of the 70 Somethings,” in which he not only equates Bernie Sanders to Joe Biden, but acts as if both are equally complicit in holding the Democratic party back. His logic? Because they are both old.

Ferguson calls the Democratic party a “gerontocracy” and goes so far as to equate Bernie Sanders with some kind of a cliche version of a creepy old man.

Sanders and Biden have made themselves the equivalent of the old dude cruising the pool at Club Med in his sagging Speedo, capped teeth gleaming, knobby shoulders and fallen pecs bronzed and shiny with tanning oil, gold chains twinkling through the chest hair

We will put aside how lazy of a simile this is, and I am not even going to go into Ferguson’s blatant use of body shaming, (it’s 2019 why are jokes about people’s body types still considered funny!?) Instead let us address the biggest oversight of the article, that the only thing Bernie and Biden have in common is that they are both old. That is literally it.

Ferguson claims that Bernie and Biden are holding the party back from the agenda that would benefit young people because they are not elevating younger candidates in the presidential primary. Ferguson is ignoring the fact that Bernie is the most popular candidate with young voters because of one thing, his policies, not his age.

The “younger candidates” (keep in mind Warren and Biden are very close to the same age by the way and Harris is over 50) are not polling as well as Bernie because the younger generation has seen how identity politics fail to yield any actual results if the candidates policies suck. I may be young, but I am old enough to remember how Obama failed us.

In Ferguson’s, who is over 60 year old, mind identity politics are still the way to win elections and fix the larger social issues we face as a nation. Apparently Ferguson is one of the many people in this country who slept through the entire Obama administration or suffers from the pre Trump amnesia that causes people to forget that poverty, sexism, and racism have always been problems in the U.S.

Obama’s tenure as president proves one thing, that it doesn’t matter if the president is an old white man or a young black man, what matters is will your policies benefit the most people? We elected a black president in 2008 who also supported drone bombs and neoliberalism, did it solve the countries woes? Did it end racism? Did it liberate women?

No. The U.S. war machine is now stronger than it has ever been. White supremacy is still rampant. The wealth gap has grown between the poorest and the richest and continues to grow. A woman is still not in total control of her own body. All of this is enough proof to demonstrate that electing someone to the presidency based on identity lines instead of policies does nothing to fix our greater societal issues.

However, the most glaring oversight of the article is that Ferguson completely ignores how Bernie Sanders has been CONSISTENT with his integrity and policies for his entire political career, whereas Biden is the complete opposite.

Until a few weeks ago, Biden supported the Hyde Amendment. Bernie Sanders was marching for abortion rights in 1972.

Bernie got himself arrested to demand an end to segregated student housing at the University of Chicago.

Biden negotiated with segregationists in order to defeat integration and school bussng bills.

Biden supported invading Iraq.

Bernie didn’t.

Biden publicly attacked Anita Hill, Bernie did not.

The list of policy differences between Biden and Bernie is staggering, but to Ferguson that means nothing. In his mind Bernie and Biden are both the same, you know, because they are both 70. -\_(“/)_/-

If anyone is holding the party back it is Biden. We don’t need Biden in the race not because he is old, but because his record is atrocious and his policies are just more of the same watered down, capitalist garbage we were given under Obama.

Ferguson would do well to take his own advice, step back and let the younger people lead, this way nothing will stand in the way of us electing Bernie Sanders and we won’t have to endure hack takes from lazy, nearsighted “writers.”

Why Liz Warren should have gone on Fox News

Elizabeth Warren turned down an invitation from Fox News to do a candidate town hall, calling the “news” station out for their blatant hate speech and for “giving a megaphone,” to racists.

While Warren is right that the fake news network is a homing beacon to the vomit inducing white right, she has lost an opprotunity to gain serious political capital by rejecting their invitation.

Now I want to stress this point before I go any further, Warren is not obliged to go on Fox News. To be honest any leftist or anyone who leans left is not obligated to take the baited hook that right wingers like Fox News or Ben Shapiro throw. “Debate me!”

Warren is also one hundred percent right about the station’s explicit racism and implicent enabling of violent white supremacy.

However, Warren has shot herself in the foot once again, like she did when she released that racist DNA test and when she endorsed Hillary Clinton. This would have been Warren’s opprotunity to save face with the white and rural voters who are so quick to reject her for the connections she made in her career to Obama and Hillary Clinton. If she had taken this town hall she could have used it as a platform to go into the heart of the belly of the beast and take down the harmful talking points against her policies, much like how Bernie did.

Bernie went into the belly of the beast, knife in hand, and came out holding the monster’s heart to the sky. When the anchor was bested by his own baiting question about government run healthcare, it was check mate for Bernard Sanders.

Bernie’s town hall gave him a huge degree of political capital. Overnight one of Fox News’ most idiotic talking points was defeated, “Most people don’t want government run health care,” they like to say. Yet with a simple cheering of the crowd and Bernie on the receiving end, the station has now been forced to scramble and rethink its rhetoric.

That is a key to winning in the art of war, keep your enemy confused, and make no mistake, we are in a class war.

This is the chance that Warren has thrown away, the chance to let Fox News own itself, as the kids would say, and come out the other end victorious and validated. By refusing the invitation, she has only played into the fodder that democrats cannot speak to Fox News base, and that fodder will cost her in the long run should she actually win the nomination.

Warren is right, Fox News is the news station for racists. However you do not end racism by running away from it. Racism ends only when it is confronted. The same with all forms of bigotry and prejudice. Bernie confronted the prejudice that Americans fear big government more than they fear big insurance, and he won. That is something the left is finally getting good at again, winning.

Warren can’t win a fight when she runs away from it.

Let’s face it, most of the Democratic Nominees for President are TERRIBLE!

This primary is giving me ulcers. I can’t fucking take much more of it. If one more liberal calls Bernie a Russian agent I will become a full on Marxist Leninist and sing the Soviet national anthem on street corners as I hand out poorly Xeroxed propaganda. If one more mediocre no name white guy decides to enter the race I might retch, and retch bile at that!

Sanders and Warren are the only two candidates who I am willing to even tolerate the idea of giving the nomination for the presidency to. Yes, I was very critical of Warren back in 2016 and I still have issues with how she handled the Bernie vs. Hillary situation. I also do not think she can beat Trump, full stop. However I will give her credit where credit is due, her working class background is admirable and her plan to cancel student debt is as worthy of praise as Bernie’s emphasis on Medicare for all. I will also add that Mike Gravel is legit, he is a real one! But as of now he is not what I would call a “strong contender.”

With that said, I despise almost of all the other democratic candidates for the nomination. Each one of them, save for a very select few outside of Warren and Sanders, have shown themselves to be agents of imperialism, agents of patriarchy, agents of gentrification, agents of white supremacy, or just a flat out terrible people.

Here is why every current Democratic party candidate, as of the time this was written, sans Warren and Sanders, is a disgusting human being worth your revile:

Kamala Harris – Kamilla Harris wants you to believe she is one of the most progressive candidates to enter the 2020 race. She also wants you to ignore the fact that she is a liar who is responsible for ruining the lives of countless families. As Attorney General and a District Attorney her prosecution of parents for truancy put countless, mostly black, people in jail. Not only did this break families up and provide more free labor for our vampiric prison industrial complex, but it has yet to be discussed what became of the children who lost their parent’s to the prison system. How many of them were seperated? How many of them were traumtized? How many of them ended up rejecting our entire system after seeing their parents get punished for their own truancy?

It should also be noted that Harris promised to not accept lobbyist or corporate donations, she has since accepted donations from lobbyists in California, New York, and South Carolina, including money from a lobbyist for pipeline firm EQT and Google’s parent company “Alphabet.” There is nothing progressive about taking money from either of these entities. Harris calling herself a progressive is an insult to our intelligence and it should be treated as such.

Kamila Harris is a liar who ruined lives, to hell with her.

Cory Booker – Booker promised to not accept corporate or lobbyist donations as well. However that doesn’t seem to be working out because not only has he accepted lobbyist money, he is the number one recipient of donations from employees of private health insurance firms, pharmacutical companies, and the biggest enemy of the people, Wall Street.

Cory Booker, like Harris, wants us to believe he is a progressive, but also like Harris, he is nothing but a fraud. A classic politician who insults the intelligence of the average voter by saying they’ll do something while doing the opposite, as if we won’t notice or as if he just doesn’t care.

Sorry Cory, but the fact you want to legalize weed and that you date Rosario Dawson, a former Sanders supporter, doesn’t win you progressive points.

Amy Klobuchar – This has less to do with policy, of which she seems to have none, and more to do with personality. But in my opinion Klobucher is one of the worst people running for office.

According to former staffers Klobuchar is abusive and even violent at times. She has thrown binders and books at staffers when they have made mistakes and has shown that (forgive my ablist terminology) she is what my father would call a “grand looney.”

Once when a staffer brought her a salad for lunch but forgot the fork, after publicly berating the staffer Kolbuchar then took out her comb and PROCEEDED TO EAT THE SALAD WITH IT! (I was right, I’m about to retch!) She then gave the staffer the comb and demanded that they “wash it off and get it back to her.”

I guess dijon dressing is good for the scalp? *Cringe*Retch*Repeat*

Pete Buttigeig – In my opinion, Buttegieg is the most disingenious person running for the nomination, even more than Harris or Booker. For one he is not intersectional with his analysis at all, he is very much a rainbow capitalist and a white rainbow capitalist at that.

In his recent town hall he equated Bernie supporters with Trump supporters and publicly disagreed with Bernie’s idea that prisoners should vote. By doing so he demonstrated that he does not understand how a disporportionate amount of people in jail are people of color. The laws robbing them of their right to vote is inturn disproportionally silencing people of color, robbing them of basic human rights both in the short and long term.

It might also interest people to know that as a mayor he handed over a popular public park to a private developer, which in turn lead to displacement and increased gentrification in his city. When Bernie was mayor of Burlington he basically told landlords to fuck off and that they “will not displace anyone in my city!” Fuck yeah Bernie!

Also, Pete is “proud” of his service in the military for this country. Anyone who is proud of having gone to Iraq or Afghanistan to kill and perpetuate American empire will get no respect from me. I can only imagine how many middle eastern lives were ruined by him and his troop regiment.

Beto O Rourke – “I will take no pac money,” he says in Facebook ads paid for by his political pacs. Yes, you read that correctly. He has also refused to sign a pledge to turn down fossil fuel industry money, maybe it has to do with the fact that he recieved a donation from Chevron’s top lobbyist before the end of the last fiscal quarter. https://theintercept.com/2019/04/17/democratic-candidates-lobbyist-donations/

Also, Beto and his wife, a billionaire heiress who founds charter schools, have earned themselves a reputation as gentrifiers in the city of El Paso. Gentrifiers are not only despicable capitalists, they are agents of white supremacy. Also, as a former charter school employee I can assure you that charter schools rob youth of equal opprotunities, they divert needed funds from already underfunded public schools, and they hurt teacher unions. Beto, betta go fuck himself. (teehee)

Tulsi Gabbard – Gabbard is an apologist for Syrian dictator Assad and has ties to the Fascist Modhi of India. Next…

Julian Castro – Castro is one person who I am willing to concede is not a “terrible” person, but he is ridiculously disingenuous. Castro criticized Bernie for his remarks about reparations, but failed to actually take a stance of his own on the issue. Like most of the other candidates, Castro seems to believe you can stand for something while standing for nothing.

Oh wait, he supports NAFTA!? Nevermind, he is horrible, he is never to be to trusted.

Kristen Gillibrand – Gillibrand has accepted $1,206,513 in donations from Wall Street in her last election and $80,483 from pharmaceutical company Pfizer. Among her top donors are Bank of America, Blackstone, and Morgan Stanley. No sale, no appeal, no vote from me. Next…

John Delany– “Who?” You might be asking, well all I need to know about him is that he is a moderate democrat who created a lending service called Health Care Financial Partners which profits off of loans made to companies in the healthcare for profit industry. Anyone who makes money off this atrocious healthcare system is scum.

Next victim…

John Hickenlooper – Sexist, period. When asked if he would pick a female running mate (as any male running in this election should) he responded with “Why aren’t women being asked if they will choose a male running mate?”

Take it to the 4chan feed you worthless M.R.A. Then go fuck yourself.

Jay Inslee – Inslee has a solid environmentalist record, no joke and no snarck there, credit where credit is due. Props to you Inslee for putting Earth first.

BUT…. this little line from a Seatle Times article conjecturing about his approaching presidential run seems important…

Inslee was the chief cheerleader of the largest corporate tax break in U.S. history, $8.7 billion to woo Boeing’s 777 plant” – https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/if-jay-inslee-runs-for-president-his-biggest-accomplishment-may-be-his-undoing/ (Danny Westneat)

Damn it Inslee, you were so close to not sucking!!! But you do, so…

Wayne Messam – Again, “Who?” Well according to the all knowing google he is the Mayor of Miramar, Florida. To be honest, unlike the others his record is relatively solid aside from championing for Hillary Clinton in 2016, but beyond that there is little controversy to him.

However something to be careful about is that he does own his own construction company. I live in a city where our city council and former mayor’s close ties to contractors have resulted in gentrification and atrocious development deals.

Out of all the no name candidates though, he is honestly the least problematic, which also kind of makes him the most boring candidate. Hell Messam, give us a sexist comment, a shitty investment, something to love/hate you for!!!

Seth Moultan – On the surface this guy is kind of awesome, he opposed relecting Nancy Pelosi as speaker of the house and he won his spot in the House by ousting an incumbent corporate democrat. He supports weed legalization, and he openly compares Donald Trump to Adolph Hitler. He has even called Nancy Pelosi out for her reluctance to impeach Trump. Moultan even identifies as a progressive and as a former Marine opposed returning troops to Iraq in 2014. However the level of pride Moultan has put into his own military record, 4 tours of duty in Iraq, is reason to give pause.

Tim Ryan – Now we are back to people who are genuinely terrible. Ryan had to be convinced to support abortion, calling it a “personal choice.” For thousands of women abortion is not merely a personal choice it is a medical neccesity. Anyone who is uncomfortable talking about abortion in a positive way in my opinion lacks basic understanding of medicine and biology. Also any man who has misgivings about abortion needs to shut the fuck up. Until human males carry the litter our only stance on abortion should be that it is legal, safe, but above all ACCESSIBLE!

I find it also disingenuious that he calls himself a pro union and pro labor candidate who thinks its good optics to say “You’re not going to get me to hate someone for being rich, I want to be rich.”

Excuse me while I vomit with annoyance and rage, again!

Eric Salwell – a former prosecutor, meaning he is an agent of the prison industrial complex, who is making a name for himself by going on to cable news networks and spewing Russiagate nonsense. Pardon me Eric, but I will literally die if I don’t get Medicare, so will millions of us. WE DO NOT CARE ABOUT RUSSIA! GIVE US HEALTH CARE AND ACCEPT THAT YOU LOST 2016 BECAUSE OF THE DNC’s SHITTY CANDIDATE.

Andrew Yang -Most people who support UBI only do so as an excuse to end all other welfare services. As a person who has survived only because of Medi-CAL let me just say, fuck that. Also do a little research into the “Yang Gang” and you might see why his base isn’t exactly something to be desired…

Moving on…

Joe Biden – Joe Biden is probably the worst person out of the entire list. Not just as a candidate but as a human being.

We already know that Biden doesn’t respect women’s personal space, add onto that his out of touch agism towards millennials, his horrible record on race, his moronic stances on marijuana (you can thank Biden for holding Obama back from legalization by the way) and the two little words his supporters hate to be reminded of, Anita Hill.

Put it all together and you have what can only be described as the most atrocious pile of unappealing since Walter Mondale. Mark my words, if Biden runs and gets the nomination he will be a Walter Mondale situation all over again for the democrats.

And lastly,

Marianne Williamson – I’ll be honest with you folks, I got nothing on her. Her activism is solid, she supports Warren and Sander’s stances, and she was an advocate for victims of the AIDS crisis when it was at its worst. Other than the fact she is a self help author and her obsession with the metaphysical, there really isn’t anything juicy to dig up on her.

Let’s be honest though, she doesn’t have a snowballs chance in hell.

Well here we are, after 20+ google searches here you have a conclusive list of how the other democratic nominees are either horrible people, or just flat out unelectable. I consider what I have done to be a public service.

Now can all of these candidates and there supporters just fuck off and give us the Sanders/Warren ticket we need! Why do so many no name hacks with no bold policy stances think they are the ones who can beat Trump!? WHY IS IT SO HARD FOR PEOPLE TO JUST READ THE FUCKING ROOM!? WE WANT BERNIE! END OF DISCUSSION!!!