Prediction: Sanders and Warren Will Both Go To the Democratic Party Convention

Here is my prediction for the 2020 Democratic Primary as of October 2019; the race for the democratic party’s nomination for president will go all the way to the 2020 party convention and it will be a contest between Sanders and Warren much like how the 1932 convention was a contest between FDR and Al Smith.

I base this analysis on my lifetime of political activism and my experience as a professional political organizer. I should note here that I am an explicit Sanders supporter, but this is not about who I think should win. This is a prediction for how I think the winner will be decided.

Here is why I see this primary going all the way to the convention.

Biden will most likely drop out after the first few election results come in. It is possible he may stay in the race until the convention as well, but I doubt it. He most likely will stick it out for the first few primaries but I guarantee that the results will not be great for him and he will be forced to eat crow.

Biden has slipped since each debate and he will continue to slip until his name recognition has depleted all it’s usefulness. Remember, the only thing Biden has going for him is name recognition, his policies are still exponentially unpopular compared to Warren or Sanders.

Warren supporters are set on electing Warren. They cannot be budged. They are dedicated to Warren and will stay dedicated, I do not see Warren supporters coming into the Bernie camp anytime soon. In fact most Warren supporters rank Bernie not even as their second or third options.

The 20-22% that Warren currently has cannot be shaken from supporting her. Her washy answers about her past views on gay marriage and her speeches to conservative groups in the 90s have not turned anyone in her base against her. They will leap to her defense at any point. To them it is all just proof that “people can change.” Warren will always have at least 20-22% support of Democrats throughout this election and that number is likely to go up when Biden drops out.

Not all of Biden’s supporters will flock to Liz Warren though. I honestly think there will be a split of Biden’s current 22% between Sanders and Warren and it will be fairly even. While their platforms are vastly different, some in the Biden camp will be attracted to Bernie’s pro working class rhetoric, while others from Biden’s camp will follow Warren because of her association to the Obama administration, the only other thing Biden has going for him besides name recognition. The people in Biden’s base who support him because he was Obama’s VP will most likely find more comfort in Warren than Sanders.

The split of Biden’s base between Warren and Sanders will be factors that carry them both into the convention.

Warren and Sanders are polling closely in all of the early election states and as the primary draws closer with each day the differences between the two will become more prevalent but for many it still represents a difficult choice that Democrats seem fairly evenly split on.

One candidate preaches comprehensive systemic change, the other preaches increased regulation. This is one of the biggest divides amongst registered democrats, do we outright abolish or reform capitalism? The two candidates who best represent the two sides of that question are Sanders and Warren. Between their equal levels of popularity, both are representative of the state of the left’s electoral challenges.

The democrats are no longer just capitalist liberals, in fact the party is now made up more of progressives and socialists than ever before. This is what makes it hard for some people to choose between the two. Socialists have their heart on Sanders because we need to stick with our own. The progressives who identify as Warren supporters support her for a number of reasons, the biggest being the desire many have to see a female president. Yet despite being representative of an oppressed community, it does not change the fact Bernie Sanders still has a better track record with fighting for oppressed communities.

This is what will carry on into the convention, it is no longer an argument of going left as Democrats but the argument is how far left will we go. Warren is a baby step to the left and Sanders is a giant leap. We can have Warren’s progressivism or Sanders’ socialism and because the support between Sanders and Warren is so close the decision will most likely be left to democratic convention delegates.

Because the democratic party itself is in such disarray and split between the capitalist and socialist elements the odds that one candidate will be unanimously rallied behind before the time of the convention are unlikely. Both front runners (sans Biden) have a dedicated base that will stay with them until the primary reaches its bitter conclusion. Sanders and Warren supporters cannot be budged.

Warren’s poor performance in the 4th primary debate complicates the equation though. Most people in her base think she performed with grace and patience but those outside of her base feel like she took a bad beating and did not reply strongly enough to the attacks against her. The argument most people have seems to be, “If she can’t handle Klobuchar or Buttigeig, how the hell can she handle Trump?” However her base, as always, remains unshaken and loyal to their idea of her. The debate performance was definitely enough to slow down her momentum but it will not be enough to reduce the loyalty of her followers.

Biden supporters will eventually have no choice but to pick between Warren and Sanders and that will result in a pretty even split. Warren and Sanders will both do well in their home states and the states that tend to always vote blue will most likely go to Warren, but Bernie is likely to build the most momentum in rural states and states that Trump won. The south is more likely to carry for Bernie this time but those states will also most likely be split evenly between Sanders and Warren. California, Ohio, and New York are the golden tickets though, and those are anyones game.

The key to winning this primary is not just in mobilizing in your states primary, the key will be getting your delegates to the convention. Democrats who want to support their candidate would be smart to mobilize their convention delegates as well as their campaigns, asap.

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Conceited Notion

Here we are,

Another conceited notion

At hope for humanity.

Wrapped in delusion

And on the other side ignorance.

Where heart doesn’t exist there is only stone.

No one cares when you break stone,

No one should.

Stone has no use except for building,

Heart brings us family, light, and love.

But who cares about any of that,

Just another poetic disposition from the cliche starving artist.

Just another conceited notion, that people might actually be good.

What The ‘Democratic’ in DSA Actually Means

In a recent article In These Times editor Joel Bliefuss commented on the Democratic Socialists of America’s 2019 Convention. Bliefuss summarizes some of the tensions people felt going into the convention but concludes that things are looking optimistic for the organization. Bliefuss also pays particular attention to one of the resolutions passed by the convention’s delegates, the “Class Struggle Elections” resolution. The language of the resolution commits DSA to centralize class and labor solidarity in our electoral work henceforth.

While the article maintains an overall positive tone about the DSA convention Bliefuss misinterprets the language of the resolution and as someone who served as a delegate at this convention and supported this resolution I must correct this misinterpretation.

Bliefuss summarizes the majority of the resolution correctly, his misinterpretation focuses on one piece of language from the resolution:

“The resolution included a caveat that says DSA’s ultimate goal is to break with the Democrats “and their capitalist donors,” and “form an independent working-class party,” rather than reform the party from within.

A new party? It’s socialist Dems who are already changing the nation’s political conversation…”

Bliefuss is interpreting the language to mean that DSA is moving to break with the Democratic party as a whole with this resolution, this is not the case. There is truth in that the DSA is often arguing amongst ourselves about how much we want to get involved with the Democratic party, but the language “form an independant working class party” does not mean “DSA is going to become a third party.” And our “break” with Democrats “and their capitalist donors” means we seek to do things 1. Differentiate democratic socialist candidates from liberal democrats and 2. break with the capitalist element of the Democratic Party. Blieffuss’s analysis reflects that he interprets a break with capitalist democrats to mean a break with the democratic party all together, this misinterpretation comes from a place that hyperbolizes the language of the resolution.

The language in this part of the resolution is very general and open to interpretation, which I think lends itself to Bliefuss’ hyperbole. However as a delegate I feel the language was kept general for a good reason, it is too early for DSA to decide to form it’s own party, any third party with less than a million active, dues paying members is doomed to fail in the United States.

The language of this resolution allows us flexibility, and gives us the chance to decide for ourselves how we want to build an independent working class party. We have multiple options, the two most likely being we can either take over the democratic party by filling it with socialist delegates and abolishing its anti-democratic safe guards such as the super delegates, or we can wait for the Democratic party to collapse on itself while we build DSA to the point where we can become the new party of the working class.

The author then goes on to cite the various other DSA members and endorsed candidates who have won elections recently, including Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, most of whom ran and won their elections as democrats. Bliefuss’s conclusion about their success stories is however mistaken. “Most of these pols have run as Democrats (without “capitalist donors”) and won by turning out registered Democratic voters.”

This is a misconception of the current political landscape. It was not just a matter of motivating the democratic party base, most of whom will vote for the democrat’s candidate no matter who is running, these candidates won by motivating the unmotivated, by pulling in non voters and giving them a reason to vote.

While the article is mostly complimentary and attempts to paint the DSA and our convention in an overall positive light, Bliefuss misinterprets one of the conventions most important resolutions and uses a disprovable argument to justify his interpretation. He does not misinterpret the whole resolution, but he does make over generalizations about one, very small, caveat of the resolution. DSA did not resolve to become a third party, we resolved to create a working class party, what that will look like will be for the organization to decide as it marches into the future.

Modern Times

Modern Times

Much can be said

of the dimension of time in our times,

Our messy haired Aristotle

was right for once.

Gravity and forces of nature and such,

Fear of the uncertain standards,

and “dying” mediums.

What can be said of our time?

Our age?

Not the one of beautiful nonsense,

We are a time but of constant gasps.

Gasps at the unspoken dialogues,

And painful arguments long overdue,

So what can be said?

Much,

Much can be said and much more,

But words, only words.

Selfless Expression

Forgotten means of expression,

Therefore no self expression ordained.

What is the difference between either?

It is self.

Obvious, no?

yet not.

Yet never be distilled in the heart and minds

of self and ideal idols.

Wasting on the cultural construct,

On the timing of lost control,

Of lost self.

A repeated, tired theme,

and old ideal.

All of them themes repeated.

A constant cycle.

Today it breaks.

Today the cycles circle no more,

Old idols fall when they have no truth

or honor.

We live in the era where old idols fall,

And justly so.

The machine breaks down,

so do our machine minds.

To breakdown in secret,

In toil and pain,

Perspective is one thing,

And shame wastes time.

No victim deserves the shame,

No child.

We live in the era where our idols fall,

And it’s justly so.Identity

Fix and free thy self from yourself.

Indulge for you and not validation.

A validated lie is a lie all the same,

even when we call it Identity.

So break the chains,

and be free from the lies

The lies that are, hold, and make Identity.

Love Trumps Hate, Unless You Are Bernie Sanders

Recently Bernie Sanders underwent an immediate operation to unclog an artery and have a stent put in.

When it was announced his campaign was suspending events until his recovery, the #StillwithHer & #LoveTrumpsHate sphere of twitter did not hesitate to show their true colors despite the fact that their great leader, Warren, was incredibly gracious and supportive to both Bernie Sanders and his staff when the news of his operation broke. As much as I criticize Warren I extend my compliments to her, that was a cool thing to do.

It was much cooler than how her following handled the news.

“Hope the old bastard dies.” Tweeted more than one enthusiastic Warren supporter.

Others tweeted the equivalence to this:

Others still wished him well but did not hesitate to show their ablism and agism in the process:

Others were just got plain idiotic, weird, even sociopathic:

And others are convinced that the Sander’s campaign is conspiring to downplay things:

The funniest part about this is that many of these people commented that his campaign was done and that he was as good as dead before the news broke that Bernie has once again passed a fundraising record, over $25 million in donations for the the 3rd quarter of 2019, all of them small personal donations.

Bernie has once again emerged with his head held higher than ever before over the clamor of his idiotic opposition. Not only is he recovering speedily but he is resuming his campaigning as if nothing had happened, and the memes have just been cranking out ever since.

What I take most from all of this was how the event once again put the hypocrisy of liberals on display. The same group that is claiming to want to see a united country, the people who have been begging for civility in this election because they fear how polarization will force them to confront their privilege, they were either celebrating a man’s possible death, or they were making ridiculous conjectures with no actual source of information, a very “Fox News” move of you, liberals.

These are the same people who decry the baseless faux news of Fox, who cry foul whenever Donald Trump sneezes on twitter. They talk about equality and post rainbow flags on their profile during pride month. They will say black lives matter and call Greta Thunberg a hero, but do not be fooled.

These are the people who make up the core base of the democratic party. They are the people who are holding the left back more than our reactionary capitalist oppressors ever could because they are the road blocks to making things like the democratic party truly left and truly democratic. No one wants to be associated with hypocritical idiots like these, no one wants to join a party with people like these in its ranks.

Bernie is about motivating the unmotivated, his tactic is to give the non voters a reason to vote. Bernie is still the most popular candidate amongst no party preference voters, the largest voter demographic in the country. Warren can count her popularity amongst loyal democrats, and folks, these tweets are from the people who are loyal democrats.

I am a registered democrat, this is true, but the only reason I reregistered as a democrat was to make sure I could vote for Bernie in 2016 and I shall do so again in 2020. That said, he level of “cringe” that it makes me feel is beyond words, and that feeling is caused because as a socialist I believe in humanity and in responding to the material needs of the masses, not to be loyal to any individual elected official.

The True Left is socialists, anarchists, and communists. We put humanity first, there is no humanity in any of these tweets. We challenge ourselves and force ourselves to confront our internalized sexism, racism, homophobia, and yes even our internalized ablism and agism. The problem with liberal democrats is that they refuse to confront these things, both in themselves and in the system. Because they refuse to challenge their own internalized ways of thinking, it leads to bullshit like this, it leads to people who will preach “give peace a chance” while conjecturing about the death of one of the most integral, hardest working public servants in U.S. history.

I registered democrat so I could vote for Bernie, but my loyalty is only to the people who Bernie’s platform will help, not the party and not even Bernie himself. My loyalty will never be to the democratic party so long as these people are its base. As socialists we must either take over the democratic party and purge its problematic elements, or we must build our own organizations to the point that we can have a viable alternative to the democratic party that is not a just another third party fringe slate. Whatever the case, what we need is a mass movement socialist party.

Bernie Sanders still has my vote, and liberals have once again furthered my distain for their ideology. May the heart of Bernie Sanders and the rhythm of our movement beat on! #NotmeUs

When The Artist Gets It Wrong

When The Artist Gets It Wrong

For long and often

I have been compelled

To thrust my ideas forth onto the page.

Long collections and high stacks of notebooks

Make up abstract chronicles of my psyche.

Have I put these words down before?

Am I but a pawn of repetitions?

A nature I cured myself into?

Is my corner my own?

I was long fascinated by Marx,

Now I know what he meant.

What I have done and yet to do,

With all of life’s potential and conclusions

constantly playing

in their loud, auspicious ways.

I cannot ask for help,

Nor can I describe the sensation.

Ever so more I try,

And ever so often I fail.

Cannot an individual live,

In his own personal state of revolution?

Whom do I ask?

Who do I tell?

What truth is there

now that a key board is a soapbox?

Little it seems,

But I was wrong,

I was very wrong.

Marx is my Jesus

Recently at a socialist night school I attended on Imperialism a fellow student said that Marxism, “denies people the sense of spirituality they need to become truly enlightened and gaining the ability to truly unite as one.”

First of all, that’s bullshit. Second of all, no. Third of all, what!?.

Copping to my bias here, I both love Marx and I am not some personality cult loyalist who blinds himself to nuance in his analysis because of a dedication to any single thinker. In other words, I’m no purist.

That said, I am a Marxist, and Marxism offers me more spirituality than church or astrology ever did combined. I have tried to find meaning through buddhism, Christianity, Astrology, psychedelic drugs, and yoga. I can appreciate all of these things but it was socialism, communism, and Marxism that made me realize that there is a way to get us to realize we are all one.

We are talking about bringing liberation, democracy, and autonomy to the planet’s most ignored and exploited classes of people. We are talking about a school of thought whose goal is the overthrow of our oppressive masters. If that isn’t powerful and spiritual I do not know what is.

Another issue with this take is the erasure of the spiritual and religious Marxists who do in fact exist and exist in large numbers. The Democratic Socialists of America has a religious socialist caucus and there are thinkers such as Cornel West who define their spirituality as the source of their socialism.

Let us also not forget that a certain preacher named Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. was perfectly fine with the word, “socialism.”

I do understand to a degree where the person is coming from. I cared little about praxis and theory at one point in my life and was more interested in macrophilosphic questions and “expanding my consciousness,” which I did through psychedelics and transcendental meditation, and am grateful for those experiences.

I am not a christian and I do not believe in astrology(no disrespect to those who do, seriously, you do you, they are just not my thing) but I do believe in transcendental meditation and in “opening the third eye” so to speak. I have meditated to the point of hallucination, tripped on mushrooms and LSD in isolated and natural settings, I have fasted until epiphany, and all of it lead me to Marxism.

Those who have undergone spiritual awakenings can assuredly relate. When one opens their third eye we see that we are all indeed one planet, all one people. When the third eye opens we see how so many labels and cultural constructs are not only arbitrary, but oppressive to.

But while psychedelic experience and spiritual awakenings guide us to these all important epiphanies, they do not show us what to do next.

This is what led me to Marxism, after I realized that we are all one I saw that we must unite in revolution to make the world what we want, I knew what we needed but the how and why was lacking. I had no material analysis because I was so focused on the metaphysical one, but when one has their metaphysical awakening, one also wants to tell the world how to make that other world we saw in our epiphany possible.

Reading Marx helped me find the way to apply my spiritual experience to the real world.

I will admit that since I am not a church goer I do still need and want the ritual and community that comes from things like church. This is just another way that socialism and Marx has given me a spiritual outlet. Songs like Bread and Roses, Solidarity Forever, and The internationale inspire feelings in me that the hymns at my boyhood church used to do before I lost that faith.

To say Marxism and socialism leave no room for spirituality is easily refutable. Marxism IS my spirituality. Socialism is my church, Marx is my Jesus, and Communism is my heaven.